GOOD SNOWY MORNING!

COLLAGE BY ROB DEASON.  A higher-res version is in our DeerhornValley.net GALLERY 

SUNDAY MORNING -- AFTER THE SNOW

 Top: LAWSON VALLEY   Below: MT. ELENA

What a beautiful morning... sun on snow!  Why not share your pictures on our FaceBook Page? (facebook.com/deerhornvalley)

 

First flakes in Lawson Valley... Mount Elena ...  On the back deck

IT'S SNOWING!

First flakes in Lyons Valley!  8 PM

LARGE BOULDERS: HONEY SPGS @ MGTT – CHP ENROUTE

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: ROAD IS NOW CLEAR--

Just when I thought it was safe to shut down the Mac....  This just came in on the CHP Incident Report.  Last update showed CHP still enroute at 8:07.   .

You can access the CHP Incident Reports at http://cad.chp.ca.gov/  Choose San Diego Area

Please be careful out there.  We want you to enjoy the snow tomorrow (hope! hope!)

AND TO ALL. . . A GOOD NIGHT!

7:30 PM
I'm watching the storm bands beginning to form offshore.  I'm enough of a kid at heart to hope they're bringing some overnight snow.  I did pretty well with the last Kim Prediction, so here goes:  Intermittent snow showers beginning about 8:00 PM.  We'll all have a bit o' the white tomorrow mornin'.  If we do, send me some of your photos: snow angels, mini snowpersons, kids, dogs.  It will be fun to share.   -KH

NWS RADAR @ 7:30 PM... First storm band of the evening headed our way.  ETA: 45 min- 1 hr.

SNOW? . . . OR NO? . . .

CURRENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST-- 

Point Forecast: 4 Miles NNE Dulzura CA
 32.68°N 116.74°W (Elev. 2585 ft)

This Afternoon: Rain showers before 4pm, then rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible.  High near 45. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Snow levels to 3200'. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tonight: Snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 31. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Deerhorn Valley - February 16, 2008

KIM'S FORECAST (Believe it or not!)

Disclaimer: I have absolutely no background in meteorology, but I've lived in Deerhorn for 28 years, and those are my grandkids, and they like snow! That has to count for something!  So here I go ... 
KIM'S PREDICTION: Snow will begin falling throughout our valleys late this afternoon.  It will be mixed with rain, and probably melt as soon as it hits the ground.  After a while you'll begin to notice that some of the flakes are clumping together where it's drier: tree notches, fences, rooftops.  Later (my quartz ball says around 7 pm) the temperature will drop to the low 30's.  Poke your head outside and you'll find what falls will be mostly snow.  Throughout the night be prepared for the kids to get up just to check.  By early morning we'll have at least sprinkling of snow... up to a couple of inches.  Enough to bite the hands through our wimpy gloves.  A few brave souls will scoop some into a mini snowman.   And if there's no snow at your altitude, go visit some friends that live a bit higher!  Are you ready for visitors Ruth, Phyllis, Ariele and Dr. Ruth?
That's the Kim Prediction, and it's definitely worth the paper electrons it's printed on!

-KH

10 AM UPDATES...

FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR OUR AREA UNTIL 10:15 AM

SNOW IS ACCUMULATION ON OLD HWY 80 IN THE CAMPO AREA

WATER CROSSING HWY94 AT DALEY RANCH

HONEY SPRINGS ROAD CLEAR AT 9:00 AM

JULIAN REPORTS 2" SNOW

MT. LAGUNA AND MT. PALOMAR AT 6"

HWY 94 BEGINNING TO FLOOD

FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR OUR AREA UNTIL 10:15 AM
9:00 AM  Water was crossing the road at the Daley Ranch Dip.  Unaware drivers were not slowing down.  Be aware of drivers approaching from the opposite direction.  The water is deep enough to cause hydroplaning and loss of control.  If you do cross running water, do it SLOWLY.  It is always deeper than you think.  If there is any doubt... DON'T CROSS.
DPW is now reporting 6" of snow on Mt. Laguna and 2" in Julian.  Crews are plowing, and drivers are advised to stay off roads if at all possible. Palomar Mtn already has snow at 4,000"  Flooding throughout county.
More than 1 inch of rain has fallen in Deerhorn.  As of 9:00 AM Honey Springs Road was still clear at the dips.

-Thanks to Sharon Gladding for this update.

FLOOD ADVISORY: EXTENDED UNTIL 10:15AM

Just checked the NWS for our area.  A flood advisory has been added to all the other warnings, so be exceptionally careful if you have to go down the hill.  Three flood spot to watch out for:  Creek crossing at the bottom of Deerhorn Valley Road -- Honey Springs Road both above and below entrance to Lower Mother Grundy TT

These three spots can become impassible.  Most long-time residents have seen trapped cars.  Deerhorn dip usually clears most quickly, but a lot of sand, mud and debris will be under the water level.  The two dips on Honey Springs are treacherous: fast-moving and deceptively deep.  Don't expect warning signs to go up.  The DPW will have its hands full in the lower areas.  Skyline TT is the best route.  It will also take you around a major flood spot on Hwy 94.  I haven't hear anything about Otay Lakes Rd.  It typically floods at the Thousand Trails dip and the creek crossing just east of the gliderport.

Be warm.  Stay safe.  Hoping you don't have to get on the road.

STORM CHECKLIST

Some suggestions for the weekend storm.  We haven't had a power outage in so long, that I almost forgot to dig out the flashlights and batteries!

1. Gas for car/generator
2. Food—nonperishable, easy-to-prepare  (we use our woodstove for backup cooking -- steaks and foil-wrapped potatoes cooked over the coals.  Mulled cider and wine stay warm on top.
3. Flashlight &  extra batteries
4. Cell phone - keep it charged
5. Battery-powered or hand-crank radio (NOAA Weather Radio, if possible)
6. First aid kit  
7. Multi-purpose tool
8. Keep family and emergency contact information handy 
9. Bring pets inside - livestock should be protected
10. Ample alternate heating methods: fireplaces or wood-stove
11. Bookmark emergency sites on your computer.

Couple of past experiences:  In the 1980's we had a serious freeze with several nights of temps down into the teens and low 20's.  Our outdoor water lines froze and ruptured.  We didn't know a tiny trickle of water prevents that from happening.  Around the same time there was a snowfall that stranded cars without chains at the bottom of Honey Springs Road.  The weather reports say it's not likely we'll get much accumulation, but even the 2008 Valentine's Day snow made driving up Deerhorn Valley Road impossible once the snow started sticking.

VALENTINE'S DAY 2008

BEWARE OF MEAT DELIVERY SCAM

This week a Lyons Valley neighbor was approached by a large white truck selling meat, and warns that this may be a scam that has been seen in many states.  The delivery people claimed that a neighbor had cancelled the order, and they would give her a great deal to avoid having to take it back to the warehouse.  She was victimized and is trying to get her money back, but wants to warn others: BE WARY IF APPROACHED TO BUY MEAT OFFERED TO YOU AT YOUR HOME.  It may be stolen, substandard, or stored in unsanitary conditions. If you have had any experience with meat arriving unannounced at your door, she would like to connect with you and share the legal codes to challenge the order and get your money back. She says, "I'm utterly sickened that people like this are exploiting our --or any-- community. They have no scruples and rely on our shame to keep us quiet." Well said.  We all need to look out after one another.

Try Googling "Meat Home Delivery Scams"  This incident has all the markers.
UPDATE: Several people have let us know that they were victimized in a similar way by home-delivery meat "businesses."  100 pounds at $4/lb turned out to be just 100 "pieces" at the same cost... more than doubling the cost.  The claim is usually that the customer "misheard."  Others reported that the meat was inconsistent, some not edible, other pieces of good quality. The scam went unreported because (true for most who are victimized) people felt embarassed that they had fallen for such a ruse.  Stay tuned.

SNOW PREDICTION: Enjoy–– But Be Prepared

This next weather storm is predicted to be VERY cold, with snow levels as low as 1000 feet over the weekend--- probably Saturday and Saturday night. The National Weather Service is warning that with snow levels so low "this weather could be deadly for unprepared hikers or campers."
Stay updated on the coming weather as you plan your weekend. Over the years we have seen snow that prevented us from coming up Deerhorn Valley Road without chains. (And who carries chains in Deerhorn?!) Mother Grundy and other unpaved roads could be treacherous until the snow melts (to mud).
We're gonna lay in some extra firewood, and do the have-to chores today and tomorrow.
Stay prepared.   A beautiful Deerhorn snowfall is a very special time.

2008 Valentines Day Snowfall -- Elena Lane.  Mount Elena in the background.

National Weather Service: Local Forecast, Radar, Advisories

RAINFALL TOTALS -- Can you share yours?

Saturday Morning: Just got a call from Bill Stevens, our local Deerhorn weather tracker.  He recorded 3.45" of rain over the last 24 hours in Upper Deerhorn.  More showers are predicted through tomorrow (Sunday), then a sunny Monday for those of you with the day off (Washington's Birthday).  We're still under Flash Flood Watch until late tonight, as runoff and local flooding is possible this afternoon behind the departing cold front.  Hope you can spend most of the time inside, dry and warm.
Do you measure the rainfall?  Send your results to rob-kim@deerhornvalley.net with your general location and we'll post them.  Thanks!

-Posted by Kim

National Weather Service Radar at 12?24 PM, Saturday 2/19/11

DPW ACTIVATES EMERGENCY PAGE

San Diego County Dept of Public Works has activated it's Emergency Page in advance of the coming storm. Good information on roads, although they don't usually cover us out here in the backcountry.  http://sdcdpw.org/emergency


SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE: Guess they activated the Emergency Page and then went home for a long weekend. There are links on the page for webcams and places to get sandbags, along with phone numbers and contacts. Not exactly what I expected from an Emergency Page, I guess.

- Posted by Kim via iPhone

FREE SANDBAGS

Ready for rain? Free sandbags are available at Dulzura Fire Station 17304 Hwy 94. Flash flood watch begins at 4 pm through Saturday. Please let us know of road conditions that may affect our drive. Click "__comments" at the bottom right of this post. Thanks!

RAIN'S A-COMIN'

Time to cover the woodpile and shelter in the tractor.  Looks like we're in for some wet weather over the next few days. Here's the Special Statement from the National Weather Service issued today (Tuesday):

PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THE LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND TONIGHT. A STEADIER RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS 6000 TO 7000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. 

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 1 INCH. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN BANDS AND FAVORED MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THIS SLOWER MOVING STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY.

The Dust Has Settled... We Hope.

It seems the dust has settled.  Power and phone were restored yesterday to neighbors Upper Mother Grundy.  Mr. Fletcher has agreed to repair the road damage and properly treat the trees that were limbed.  The home owners have their modules delivered, and are looking forward, I'm sure, to establishing real roots in a real home.  I hope they realize no one in Deerhorn Valley has any bad feelings toward them at all.  It was solely Mr. Fletcher's behavior that escalated this incident far beyond what it should have been.  How different we would all feel if the road had been prepared ahead of time, homeowners had been notified, proper lodging had been arranged for the couple without power, and an agreement for repairing the damage done had been forthcoming from the start.

We owe thanks to Supervisor Jacob, the Planning Dept. (DPLU) and the Dept. Public Works (Roads) who sorted out the pieces and informed us what options there were for repairing the damage, and what kind of information was available to assist us (Trucking Permits, load limits, etc.)  We'll obtain copies of the trucking regulations that apply on county roads and private easements, and request copies of the approved permits.  Stay tuned.  I admit my eyes glaze over at those kinds of documents.

In the meantime, if you suffered any damage to your trees, road surface (including drainage patterns), let us know and we'll forward the information to DPLU and DPW.

-posted by Kim Hamilton

You Owe Us an Apology, Mr. Fletcher

"I can cut any tree that I want..." - Jacob Fletcher

On Friday and Monday, Fletcher Construction Co. attempted to haul three 90-foot-long oversized trailer modules up a steep, winding 2-lane road that is Deerhorn Valley’s only safe access route for evacuation and medical assistance. This was beyond stupidity; it was callous disregard for the lives and safety of the families who live here.

I can’t begin to understand why proper protocol and safety were not considered. Other companies have placed similar modules in the same location with little or no problem. Other companies have surveyed and prepared the road ahead of time. Evidently that was too much to ask of GJ Fletcher Construction Co.

When I asked Jacob Fletcher why there had been no road preparation, he told me, “We do it as we go along… we don’t have to ask anybody.”

We are fire-survivors out here who lost nearly half our community in the 2007 Harris Fire. We didn’t get the press Rancho Bernardo did. We didn’t get the federal assistance others did, even though we suffered the greatest concentration of homes destroyed by the Harris Fire. We are so very aware that when our primary access route is blocked we can't get out--- and emergency vehicles can't get in.

At times we deal with flooded dips and downed trees. But this company's actions were not an Act of God. The were the actions of a company looking to maximize its profit margin by cutting corners on safety.

Mr. Fletcher dismissively tells those trying to reach home or work to take an unmaintained dirt road as an alternate. The “alternate” he refers to is a single lane dirt road with precipitous dropoffs, gullies, and grades. Something to be avoided, not recommended, especially if you have no information on road conditions.

Certainly he did not risk driving it with his equipment.

When this same company hauled the first two units on Friday night, they knocked down power and phone lines and left one elderly couple without heat, water, or phone. It was finally a neighbor, NOT GJ Fletcher Co, who brought the couple a generator and kept it gassed up for the next 3 days. It wasn’t powerful enough to run the water pump, but it’s keeping their food from spoiling.

That’s the way neighbors do it in Deerhorn Valley. It’s common courtesy. Lessons are free.

Mr. Fletcher owes our community an apology, not an indictment. We are not intimidated by his boastful threats to take away our homes and properties… because we dared take a photograph of him-- and the damage he caused. Nor are we impressed by his crew that gave us one-fingered goodbyes after they dropped off their delivery and high-tailed it out of here.

Mr Fletcher: Have some class.  Apologize.  Then promise this will never happen again.

- Posted by Kim via iPhone

Business signs and oak trees both received the same disrespect.

This unit began its trip down Mother Grundy at 9:30 in the morning.
They completed the 2.5 miles in just under 6 hours. 

You would have thought they could see this coming.

This is the next mud sump.  Will Mr. Fletcher pay for towing?

YESTERDAY'S TRUCK/TRAILER FIASCO: UNACCEPTABLE (AND DANGEROUS)

The third section (approx 14x90) still at the bottom of Deerhorn Valley Rd.  late Sunday afternoon.

Yesterday's truck-trailer fiasco was foolish, unnecessary, unacceptable, – and VERY serious.   Look how easily our only access and evacuation routes to Upper Deerhorn and Mother Grundy were blocked. One stalled truck was all it took.  Could have as easily been a downed tree or power pole during a wildfire.  If you had needed medical or fire assistance during that time, would paramedics or firefighter be able to reach you?  Not if you lived off of Deerhorn Valley Rd.
Thank you to all of you neighbors who took time to relay information.  It started with a call from Ariele J about noon when Deerhorn Valley Rd. access was blocked.  Later toward evening residents from Mother Grundy started sending emails and texts: Upper Mother Grundy was blocked, power lines had been knocked down to one home at least, leaving elderly residents without heat, water, phone.  Neighbors continued to follow the trucks' progress down Mother Grundy ...to Via Pamela ...and on to Via Laura.  Text messages, phone calls, Twitter tweets, Facebook postings, along with more email.
Hopefully the contractor will repair the damages done– and the next contrator will make sure road preparation is properly completed BEFORE the modules arrive. (The contractor responsible for yesterday's drama was GJ Fletcher Construction in Alpine.)

Contractor GJ Fletcher Construction from Descanso was responsible for  moving the modular sections .

SO HERE IS A WAKEUP CALL for us, our friends, and our backcountry neighbors:  If you got an email Antler Alert... great.  BUT PLEASE try to set up least one other source of information.  It's so much easier to do now, rather than in the middle of the next emergency.  It isn't hard.  And maybe you'll never need to use it.   But know that there are ways we can stay connected, even during the worst of emergencies:

DEERHORN VALLEY"BLOG" (short for "web log"): 
You're already at our DV Blog site. There is a comment button below. The BEST thing is that information can be shared back and forth, instead of it just going through one person.  Facebook and Twitter have the same advantage.  Things don't depend on just one person or one computer.

FACEBOOK (facebook.com/deerhornvalley)

Deerhorn Valley Facebook page is "open" to everyone, and a place to bookmark, even if you don't want to use it now.  FB pages have proven themselves during emergencies: post information, ask questions, find out the current information from people who are neighbors and friends, instead of waiting for media, who are unfamiliar with our backcountry... if they even know we're here.

TWITTER: (twitter.com/deerhornvalley)

Feeling braver?  Try a Twitter Account (free) and "follow" the Emergency pages (CalFire, Sheriff, etc.)  A link to the list I use is on the upper right hand side of Deerhorn's Twitter Page.  You'll get periodic "Tweets" from agencies (and people) you choose.  They are short (140 characters or less.  Getting too many?  Just "unfollow" the source.

EMAIL ALERTS: Antler E-mail Alerts: (deerhornvalley.net/antler) 
Viejas Emergency Alerts (eastcountymagazine.org)
These work well, as long as someone is at a computer and has the email addresses. It pretty much boils down to just a couple of people, so when we aren't available or don't get the information--- the system breaks down.  But when it works, it's great.

OVERSIZED TRACTOR/TRAILERS BLOCK DV RD. & MGTT

Oversized Truck-Trailers block access to Deerhorn Valley Road and Mother Grundy TT:

Two oversized tractor trailers were hauling sections a prefab up to Via Laura.  Reportedly the hauler was Greg Fletcher from Japatul Road.  About noon the first rig failed to make the turn from Honey Springs to Deerhorn Valley Rd, and traffic was told to go back down  to Lower Mother Grundy in order to access DV Road.

About 6pm one of the rigs headed down Mother Grundy off DV Rd and got stuck, as well as taking down the power drop to at least one home.  The elderly couple who lives there now have no power - water - phone.  The rig moved on its way, and at least one resident went to investigate them as they were cutting down large oak branches to get through.

Evidently there was no proper road preparation done prior to hauling these sections.  Residents along Mother Grundy report that the last prefab headed up there was required to smooth the road and clear obstacles well ahead of the transport day.

NWS HIGH WIND WARNING...

From the National Weather Service:

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST THURSDAY. 

WINDS INCREASING BY LATE EVENING AND STRONGEST FROM LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

PERIODS OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 

WINDS NORTHEAST EAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. 

THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT. MOTORISTS WITH HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE STRONG WINDS. WATCH FOR BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND DOWNED POWER LINES.